Please note: this is not an official forecast. Please use official forecasts for any decision making in regard to Hagupit.
Somewhat good news for Tacloban. The storm center is expected to cross the Philippines north of the city so devastated by Haiyan (Yolanda), last year. This will mean that the worst winds should be coming from the northwest which makes a major storm surge is unlikely in that area.
Storm surges of up to 13 feet (4 meters) are expected north of the storm center. Central winds have weakened since Wednesday night and the storm has been down-graded one category. There will still be damage from winds but nothing like what Wednesday's 180 mph sustained winds could produce.
The forecast course for Hagupit is for it to pass very close to Manila, the capitol. By then the mountains should have taken some more steam out of the storm, and I can't see how a significant storm surge can develop there unless the centre stalls just west of the city.
Hagupit is expected to hit the islands Saturday evening Manila time - Saturday morning EST. It will move painfully slowly across the islands depositing as much as 2 feet of rain.
One would expect many mudslides and, unfortunately, many lives lost. It is not uncommon for such typhoons to be responsible for taking more than 1000 lives.
|Rainfall amount forecast - good grief!|